Aluminium prices fell by 1.32% to settle at ₹246.3, weighed down by concerns over impending U.S. tariffs set to take effect this week. However, the downside was limited by encouraging factory data from China, which showed its manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March. Additionally, aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.4% from last Friday, adding pressure to prices. On the supply side, major alumina producers in Guinea, Australia, and China ramped up capacity following disruptions last year, leading to a decline in alumina prices and improved processing rates for smelters. 

Despite this, global primary aluminium output in February declined by 0.9% year-on-year to 5.645 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China, the world’s top aluminium producer, recorded an output of 44 million tonnes in 2024, but production growth is expected to slow as Beijing maintains its cap of 45 million tonnes to curb excess supply and meet carbon reduction targets. Trade data also revealed muted Chinese aluminium exports after the government ended tax rebates on overseas sales, pushing up foreign benchmark prices as domestic producers prioritized local markets.  

Technically, the aluminium market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 1.76% to 3,650 contracts. Support is seen at ₹245.2, with further downside possible to ₹244.1, while resistance is at ₹248, with a breakout potentially driving prices to ₹249.7.